A $3M Hedge, a Midterm Test and Retail's Rise: Prediction Markets at NEXTPredict

In brief

• NEXTPredict brought prediction market exchanges, trading firms and policymakers together in New York on October 22 and 23, less than two weeks before the U.S. midterms.
• Chuck Todd, who moderated a panel pitting polls against markets, said he was "bullish on prediction markets for the future of journalism."
• Executives from Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood pointed to hedging, financial contracts and regulation as the next frontiers beyond elections and sports.

Prediction markets spent two days in the spotlight at NEXTPredict, which brought the industry's biggest exchanges, trading firms and policymakers to Convene Hudson Yards in New York on October 22 and 23.

With the U.S. midterms less than two weeks away, elections dominated the conversation, but executives were just as keen to talk about what comes next.

The hedge that lost

The conference opened with a trade that didn't pay out. NEXTPredict had paid a $12,000 premium on Kalshi for contracts that would have returned around $3 million if more than half of scheduled arrivals at New York's JFK airport were cancelled the day before the event.

"We ended up losing that trade yesterday, right?" NEXTPredict co-founder Pierre Lindh said on Thursday's "Hedging the Unhedgeable" panel. "And I can only say I'm very happy that we lost that trade, because that means we're all here today."