Arthur Hayes Forecasts EUR/JPY Drop Could Boost Crypto Liquidity

Arthur Hayes says a falling EUR/JPY could unlock a fresh wave of crypto liquidity. He argues the currency move signals more dollar printing at the Federal Reserve.

The Maelstrom chief investment officer forecasts EUR/JPY falling from about 185 to below 140 by June 2027. He links the move to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s currency strategy.

Why EUR/JPY Is Hayes’ Crypto Liquidity Gauge

In July, the New York Fed sold euros to help fund Japan’s yen rescue. It used the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) rather than dollars.

Hayes argues that reallocation previews a bigger pattern. Allies get dollar liquidity without an official expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has already asked Bessent to justify the ESF’s use. He has not disclosed the full amount spent.

Hayes also points to the Fed’s growing use of repo market purchases to backstop Treasury demand. Similar repo dynamics underpin a separate BeInCrypto analysis tying Bessent’s buyback program to a $224,000 Bitcoin math.

Maelstrom, his family office, holds Bitcoin (BTC) as a structural long regardless of short-term swings.

A Political Trigger in France

That scenario is Hayes’ own framework, not a confirmed policy shift. No French or European Central Bank official has signaled such a move.