BIT on Target: Bitcoin Bear Market Ends—Could $200,000 Be the Bull Market Peak?

Bitcoin is re-entering a bull market cycle. Previously, Bitcoin reached the downside target zone of this bear market correction and confirmed the cycle low after stabilizing at $62,900. The price then broke above the 21-week moving average at $69,272, further confirming the end of the bear market. Currently, Bitcoin has risen to around $84,000–$86,000, surpassing the May 2026 high and reclaiming the 1-year moving average, with monthly cycle indicators further confirming that the bear market has ended.

Meanwhile, the U.S. federal debt has reached approximately $40.1 trillion. Overlaying the Bitcoin price with U.S. federal debt yields an implied fair value for Bitcoin of around $105,000. As debt continues to expand, this trend will continue to provide long-term structural support for Bitcoin. However, recent strength in the dollar, combined with Bitcoin’s short-term overbought condition, may lead to a period of consolidation.

Bear market confirmed over: Bitcoin has reclaimed the market average cost

This rally was initially driven by short covering, and the first wave of FOMO emerged after Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000. Since then, the price has broken through key resistance levels, including the March 2024 high of $73,084, the resistance formed by the April 2025 tariff announcement, and the May 2026 high, while also reclaiming the 1-year moving average. Bitcoin has now fully recovered the primary resistance zone since March 2024 and is trading above the 1-year moving average, further increasing the probability of a sustained breakout.