Bitcoin Chart Mirrors Setup Before Last Cycle's 400% Rally
The article says Bitcoin’s current chart pattern resembles a setup seen before the previous market cycle’s roughly 400% rally. The comparison is presented as a technical-chart observation and does not establish that a similar gain will…
KuCoin
Publisher
Oct 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC · Updated 3일 전 · 2 분 소요

Key Signal
41,025 BTC Wallet cohort accumulation
Entities
bitcoin
Market Impact
BTC+0.46%$85,231
Last Updated
3일 전
TL;DR
- Analyst Frank Cappelleri noted that Bitcoin’s chart replicates the technical structure that preceded the 400% rally recorded in the previous cycle.
- The current pattern shows a 54% drop in this cycle versus 70% in 2022-2023, and Cappelleri sees a similar base that could lead to new highs.
- BIT Research places the True Market Mean at $76,900 and projects a bullish scenario of between $185,000 and $215,000 for BTC.
Technical analyst Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, stated in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin’s chart replicates the configuration that preceded the rally of 400% from the previous cycle.
Cappelleri clarified that he is not projecting an equivalent gain for the current cycle. Instead, he identified what he described as “a very similar base” that could eventually bring the asset to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin’s Chart and the Mirror of the 2022-2023 Cycle
Cappelleri compared the current price structure with the period spanning 2022 to 2023, when BTC recorded a drop of approximately 70%. Against that backdrop, the analyst noted that this cycle’s pullback is around 54%, and argued that the resulting pattern “also looks like a bullish formation.”
That previous correction culminated in a large-scale breakout, and Cappelleri argued that Bitcointends to move with force once momentum is activated. “Bitcoin really does well with technicals,” he stated, referring to BTC’s historical consistency in response to technical analysis signals.
Market Context
Bitcoin
BTC
$85,232
+0.46% (24H)
Market Cap
$1.71T
24H Volume
$12.6B
24H High
$85,407
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