Bitcoin could put the average ETF buyer back in losses this week

Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $82,775.94 on Sept. 29 before rebounding above $83,000, close to a price that could change the estimated profitability of the average Bitcoin ETF holder when Wednesday’s US inflation data arrive.

A decline of about 2.2% from mid-$83,000 would reach $81,722, a target that Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart estimated on Sept. 21 as the average ETF holder’s cost basis, saying the recent rally had put that holder back in profit.

Individual investors have different purchase prices, and a move through $81,722 would make their trading decisions worth watching. A Sept. 9 Glassnode report placed a differently measured ETF-complex break-even near $86,000.

Seyffart’s later estimate gives Wednesday’s price action a specific threshold, with its scope and date attached.

Levels around the ETF estimate

The immediate reference above Tuesday’s captured price is an $84,000-$85,000 zone, as Glassnode’s Sept. 23 report called it the largest cluster of long-term-holder supply. Bitcoin traded above that zone when the report was published, while Tuesday’s quoted price was below it.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. calculated Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average at $80,500 on Sept. 22, so a fall through $81,722 followed by a test of $80,500 would carry price below two separate reference points.