Bitcoin Is Back Above $80,000, But Fidelity Says the Bear Market May Not Be Over Yet

Fidelity believes that while Bitcoin's strong August rally and other factors offer reasons for optimism, none confirm that the bear market has ended.

Bitcoin, once again, climbed above $80,000 after surging by 4.3% on Friday. The recent strength comes as a welcome change, as the crypto market spent much of the third quarter under pressure before a sharp rally in late August changed the tone. BTC, for one, recorded its strongest monthly gain since November 2024, which led some investors to believe the bear market may have ended.

But according to Fidelity, there is no guarantee that’s the case yet.

Possible November Bottom?

One factor in focus is Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle. The crypto asset has generally formed major bear-market bottoms and bull-market tops about four years apart. Since the previous bear market bottom came in November 2022, this pattern could point to another potential low around November 2026 if the cycle continues.

While Fidelity stressed that the four-year cycle is not guaranteed to repeat and that Bitcoin’s bottom may already have occurred in July, it still speculated that the cryptocurrency could fall again and set another low in November or later.