Bitcoin Rally Expected to Fade, Kalshi Traders Say

The crypto market just had its best week in months, but the people who bet on these things for a living are keeping their expectations in check.

Bitcoin climbed more than 20% this week, pushing it to its highest level since May. Yet the traders on Kalshi, a prediction market where people place real-money bets on future events, think the rally is mostly over. Their average forecast puts bitcoin around $75,000 when 2026 wraps up, which is actually a tick below where the coin is trading right now.

What the Betting Slips Say

Kalshi works differently from a stock exchange. Instead of buying shares, traders place yes or no bets on whether an asset will land inside a specific range. For the contracts, they are set up in $5,000-wide bands. At midnight on Jan. 1, 2027, the price gets checked, and anyone who bet on the right band wins.

The official price comes from CF Benchmarks, a data firm that tracks bitcoin's value. So when you see a forecast like $75,000, it is not a prediction from an analyst with a fancy model. It is the average of what traders think is likely, based on where they are putting their money.

That is what makes the current outlook so interesting. Bitcoin just had a monster week, but traders are not betting on a continued climb. They are pricing in a year-end finish that is nearly flat from today.