Bitcoin’s $80K Rally Is a Trap, Analyst Warns of $45K Drop

The analyst's projected route runs from $77,000 to $67,000 then $55,000 before a final leg to between $45,000 and $48,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) spent this past week ripping from the low $60,000s to just under $80,000, and to trader Nonzee, none of it looks like conviction.

They are calling the move a trap built on forced buying rather than real demand, and say the next leg is down, not up.

The Case for a Distribution Phase, Not a New Bull Run

Nonzee’s argument starts with the size of the squeeze, where more than $3.1 billion in short positions were wiped out during the run, and Bitcoin alone was responsible for roughly $1.65 billion of that figure. In their view, that is what actually pushed the price higher, not a change in sentiment.

“That was not a reversal. It was a liquidity squeeze,” they wrote.

The trader tied the timing to two catalysts: Trump putting the CLARITY Act back in the headlines and the Treasury Department increasing its long-term bond buybacks. Both, they argue, forced shorts out and pulled fresh longs into a market that was already stretched thin.

Their read on where things stand now is that the $70,000 fair value gap, a pricing gap left behind during an earlier fast move that traders watch for a return visit, has been filled, the short squeeze has run its course, and FOMO buying is happening in real time.