Bitcoin’s slide below $81,000 exposes why a Fed pause may not save the crypto market

Bitcoin slid below $81,000 on Oct. 8, with an intraday low near $80,800, even as traders expect the Fed to hold in October.

The September FOMC minutes, released Oct. 7, said most participants viewed another rate increase by year-end as probable and left decisions dependent on data.

December remains an expectation inferred from the policy path, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller's Oct. 8 remarks showed how far that path extends.

A pause delays the next hike

Waller cited futures pricing as of Oct. 7 that assigned an 85% chance to at least one hike by December. The same pricing put nearly 80% on at least two hikes by March 2027 and 33% on three or more.

The probabilities are cumulative and market-implied, with Waller adding that further hikes are probable if data evolve as expected and that they can skip meetings. An October hold moves the next increase later on the calendar while the path into 2027 stays steep.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.305%, and the 2-year was at 4.821% on Oct. 8, with Brent crude at $104.87. Oil keeps inflation risk alive, and higher yields keep the cost of capital elevated for risk assets even if the Fed skips a meeting.

Glassnode's Oct. 7 report found combined spot-exchange and US Bitcoin spot ETF volume near $6.8 billion a day, below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. Estimated new money from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate treasury buying totaled $4.9 billion, while realized cap rose $12.8 billion over 30 days, less than 40% of the total.