Bitcoin Surges, But Prediction Markets Remain Unconvinced: Bull-Bear Odds Still a Coin Toss

On Myriad, the probability of rising to $84,000 is only 52%.

Author: Jose Antonio Lanz

Compiled by: TechFlow

TechFlow Summary: Bitcoin traded at $71,556 on Thursday, marking its highest level since June 1, continuing its sharpest rebound in five months. However, traders in the prediction markets have not yet been convinced by this rally—just days ago, around 70% of bets on Myriad leaned toward Bitcoin falling to $55,000, although the long/short odds have now flipped, they remain close to a coin toss (52% to 48%); and Polymarket's year-end contract still gives a 56% probability of first touching $55,000.

On Thursday, Bitcoin closed at $71,556, up 3.26% for the day, as bulls attempt to break the downtrend for the first time in months. Sentiment across the broader market has clearly shifted, but traders on prediction markets still seem unconvinced.

Today's move extends Bitcoin's strongest rebound in five months—the single-day gain posted yesterday was the largest since March 4, with prices also reaching their highest point since June 1.

Prediction markets translate public wagers into real-time odds. On Myriad (the market operated by Dastan, Decrypt's parent company), just days ago, traders were leaning toward Bitcoin falling to $55,000 with roughly a 70% probability. By Wednesday afternoon, these odds had collapsed to near a coin toss: the side betting on $84,000 accounted for roughly 52%, while the side betting on $55,000 made up 48%.