Bitcoin Up 25% in August, But the Real Battle Lies at $81,000

Original Author: 21shares

Original Compilation: TechFlow

TechFlow Insights: Bitcoin just recorded its strongest August since 2017, gaining roughly 25% in a single month. But is this rally a trend reversal or just a short squeeze? This report highlights several key observations that must be confirmed in September, offering valuable reference points for both traders and long-term allocators.

Key Points:

• August catalysts were in place. The Treasury's expanded buyback program drove Bitcoin up roughly 25%, marking its best monthly performance since November 2024, coinciding precisely with the historical window when previous bear markets concluded.
• The rally has underlying support. Record short liquidations ignited the move, but open interest sits at only half of the October 2025 peak, funding rates are not crowded, and $3.05 billion in ETF inflows confirm genuine spot demand beneath the surface.
• September will be decisive. Watch the $76,000–$78,000 support zone, the persistence of ETF flows, and long-end yields. The $81,000–$82,000 level is the dividing line between a trend reversal and a bear market rally. Any pullback should be viewed as a late-cycle buy-the-dip opportunity, not a reason to exit.