GM. This is Milk Road, the newsletter where John drops in on Tuesdays to give you a macro check-up like a weird doctor who means something very different when he says, “painful inflation.”
Here’s what we’ve got for you today:
Prices as of 2:00 p.m. ET. Powered by CoinGecko.
RISK ON GOES ON
The Milk Road Macro Index has flipped to RISK ON.
Hold for applause.
Source: Milk Road Macro Index
Well actually, it’s been RISK ON since last week, but as of the time of writing, it’s already pulling back a tiny bit.
Before you start booing, let me explain.
The headline allocation posture fell from +0.43 (yesterday) to +0.30 (today).
Source: Milk Road Macro Index
The macro buffer held at +0.50 and stress at +0.00, but both inputs are about to face tests. Specifically, tomorrow’s July CPI and the August 14th GDPNow revision.
The stakes on CPI are sharper now. Even if the topline print shows some cooling, there could still be things in the data that tip inflation worries.
Consensus sits around 0.32% for month-over-month, which is above the roughly 0.20% run rate our framework treats as the inflation tipping point.
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RISK ON GOES ON
What does that mean?
