CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to 60-Vote Senate Test Comes Into View

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September 13, 2026

CLARITY Act odds on Kalshi for the bill to become law in 2026 stood at 25% on September 13, down from 82% in February. At the same time, a separate Kalshi market put the probability of a U.S. Senate vote before October 1 at 94%.

The difference reflects two distinct questions: whether the Senate will take up the measure and whether the bill will complete the full legislative process and be signed into law, with a full-blown crypto bull market hinging on its passage.

The Senate is due to consider the measure on September 15. The Kalshi concerns whether H.R. 3633, formerly known as the CLARITY Act, will be passed by both chambers of Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026. A vote on the motion to proceed is an earlier procedural stage, rather than final enactment.

CLARITY Act Odds: A Vote Is Not the Same as a Law

More than $8M has been wagered on Kalshi’s contract covering the bill’s enactment. The market’s implied probability fell from 82% in February to 16% on September 7.

Views on the Senate threshold differ. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in a CNBC interview that he was rather optimistic about obtaining 60 votes and characterized the negotiations as having delivered most of what both sides wanted.