Data of 54,000 wallet users leaked, Clarity odds just 10%: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 16

CLARITY odds narrow as bill enters the final straight

Galaxy Digital has lowered its estimate of the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing in 2026 to just 10%. In May it had estimated the chance of passage at 75%.

Multiple political issues remain unresolved and the Senate only has 14 days in session to pass the bill after it reconvenes on Sept. 14.

Unless an initial motion to proceed vote occurs immediately upon lawmakers’ return to Washington, there would only be enough time for the CLARITY Act to pass if it “dominates basically the entire working session,” wrote Galaxy head of research, Alex Thorn.

If the bill doesn’t pass, the SEC and CFTC plan to step into the breach by issuing their own rules for crypto markets. The SEC scheduled an open meeting on Friday to unveil its “clear rules of the road” but then cancelled it due to an “an unforeseen scheduling issue.” The White House was reportedly unhappy that the SEC going rogue on crypto rules could anger Democrats and scuttle the delicate negotiations underway to pass CLARITY.

SEC chair Paul Atkins, President Donald Trump and a series of big wigs from Coinbase, a16z, Ripple, Chainlink, NYSE and Nasdaq will meet at the White House on Wednesday to discuss crypto regulation and explore ways to get the bill over the line.

The following day the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s new Innovation Advisory Committee will meet to discuss regulation of crypto, AI and prediction markets.