Does Oil Move Bitcoin Price? No and Yes

Then, from May through June 30, bitcoin and WTI each dropped almost 30%, but their daily price changes still didn’t line up—and bitcoin faced its own specific pressures, such as ETF sell-offs and May’s first $BTC sale by Strategy since 2022.

Both assets have their own market rules. Since the June lows, bitcoin gained 44% while WTI advanced more than 30%. Once again, their daily moves showed no meaningful correlation during that time.

FRED and Coingecko data also shows that during the six biggest oil jumps of the past five years, bitcoin prices rose three times and fell three times. For example, between Feb. 25 and March 18, 2026, Brent spot jumped 67% (WTI, 47%), but bitcoin advanced 5%. Meanwhile, between Aug. 25 and Sept. 16, 2026, Brent moved up 45% (WTI, 24%), while bitcoin dropped around 3%.

Oil as a Fed Policy Bellwether

So why do we keep reading headlines about how bitcoin rose or dropped as the price of oil dived or increased? The usual logic is that oil prices affect inflation, which in turn changes pressure on central banks to raise, cut, or hold interest rates. That affects the price of money and, subsequently, risk assets. Bitcoin is considered to be among them, alongside stocks.