Gemini’s exchange business is shrinking. Its regulatory licenses may be the real prize

Gemini Space Station (GEMI), a crypto platform, has seen its price roughly 80% since its public debut, reviving questions about whether the platform founded by the billionaire Winklevoss twins could eventually become an acquisition target.

Lorenzo Valente, director of digital assets research at ARK Invest, argued in a post on X last month that Hyperliquid, the offshore perpetual-trading platform, should acquire Gemini and use it as a regulated U.S. gateway for perpetual futures and prediction markets, with the Winklevoss twins’ concentrated voting control potentially simplifying the deal.

Is Gemini a viable target?

While there is no indication that Hyperliquid is actively pursuing a deal to buy Gemini, Valente's proposal raises a broader question: What is Gemini's value proposition to a potential buyer if its regulatory infrastructure is worth more than its shrinking spot-exchange business?

Currently, the stock's market cap is $753 million, down from about $4 billion at its peak. Gemini’s second-quarter exchange revenue fell 38% from a year earlier to $12.5 million, while spot trading volume dropped 66% to $3.8 billion, and assets on the platform declined to $8.4 billion from $18.2 billion.