JPMorgan says Bitcoin has more upside than gold, and short sellers are the reason

JPMorgan's latest research note makes a case that might surprise the gold bugs: Bitcoin has more room to run than the yellow metal right now, and the reasoning has less to do with crypto enthusiasm than with cold, structural market mechanics.

The bank's analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, published a report on September 16 arguing that Bitcoin's upside advantage comes down to two factors. First, Bitcoin ETFs have recaptured far less of their 2026 outflows compared to gold ETFs. Second, and more importantly, the short interest piled up against BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is creating the conditions for a potential squeeze that gold simply doesn't have.

The core of JPMorgan's argument hinges on positioning data. IBIT's short interest is sitting near its 2026 highs, meaning a significant number of traders are betting against the fund or using it as a hedge. Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has short interest that's actually below its historical average.

The put-to-call open interest ratio for IBIT also remains elevated compared to GLD. In plain terms, options traders are paying up for downside protection on Bitcoin at a rate they simply aren't for gold. That hedging demand creates an asymmetry: if fear subsides and those protective positions get unwound, the resulting flow benefits Bitcoin disproportionately.