Quantum Computing Could Cut Industrial Emissions Without an AI-Sized Footprint, BCG Finds

Insider Brief

• Quantum computing could support cleaner energy and industrial processes with a relatively small emissions footprint, according to a BCG study.
• BCG estimates that fully deployed quantum-enabled technologies could prevent 3 billion to 7 billion metric tons of emissions annually through advances in batteries, carbon capture and industrial chemistry.
• Only 10% to 15% of those potential savings may be realized by 2040 because commercialization and replacement of long-lived industrial equipment could take decades.
• Image: Photo by Yamu_Jay on Pixabay

The rise of artificial intelligence has raised a new question about whether the next major computing technology will add another large load to power grids. Some experts are worried that quantum systems might do the same as they scale.

A Boston Consulting Group study suggests that is unlikely.

BCG estimates that quantum-enabled technologies could eventually prevent 3 billion to 7 billion metric tons of emissions annually if fully deployed. At 5 billion metric tons — the midpoint, or middle of that range — the savings would equal nearly a tenth of current global emissions.

Although that sounds impressive, the report cautions that those gains would take decades to realize. Under normal equipment replacement cycles, BCG estimates that only 10% to 15% of the potential savings could arrive by 2040, even if commercially viable quantum solutions emerge around 2035.