Strategy's 847,666 Bitcoin Could Be Worth $161B on a BTC/Gold Reversal

Key Takeaways

• Adam Livingston’s scenario needs gold up 15% to $4,760 and BTC/gold back at its Dec. 2024 peak.
• Bitcoin buys about 20.4 ounces of gold today, down roughly 49% from about 40 ounces in December 2024.
• The scenario implies a $190,858 bitcoin, about 51% above the record set in October 2025.

The Claim

Strategy’s stack is worth about $71.6 billion at the moment. Bitcoin priced in gold peaked at 40.1 ounces around December 2024 and now sits near 20.4 ounces today. Bitcoin treasury Strive’s VP of investments, Adam Livingston, asks what happens if two things occur:

• Gold rises 15% to $4,760 an ounce.
• The BTC/gold ratio returns to its old high. Not a new high, just a level it has already printed approx. 21 months ago.

The answer is bitcoin at $190,858 and a Strategy treasury worth $161.8 billion.

Gold Gets Back to $4,760?

Gold futures closed at about $4,162 an ounce yesterday, so a 15% climb lands near the aforementioned target. Gold has been far higher this year as it broke above $5,000 in January on geopolitical stress, then gave back more than 20% from its peak. The last leg down came fast, when gold and silver shed $550 billion in a matter of hours on Sept. 28.

The second step checks out on the data as well and using daily closes for bitcoin’s price and gold futures, the ratio tops out near 40 ounces on Dec. 17, 2024, when bitcoin traded around $106,140 and gold near $2,662. Livingston’s 40.1, in this regard, probably reflects intraday or spot pricing. Today the figure is about 20.4 ounces, with bitcoin near $84,600, a drop of roughly 49%.