What is 'Red September'? The Bitcoin Curse and Why Wall Street Can't Escape It

Bitcoin has fallen 8 times in the past 13 Septembers. Since 1928, the U.S. stock market has also suffered from the same issue.

Written by: Jose Antonio Lanz

Compiled by: Baihua Blockchain

Bitcoin investors have lost money 8 times in the past 13 Septembers. The average performance of the S&P 500 in September has been negative since 1945, and researchers at Yardeni have traced this pattern back to 1928.

Bitcoin is not the originator of this curse, but it has not been spared either.

Crypto traders refer to it as 'Red September,' a cyclical market 'nightmare' that resurfaces every year at this time. However, this is not superstition but a stubborn data pattern that neither a 15-year-old asset nor a century-old index can escape.

What is the reason behind it?

Data Supporting the Curse

According to monthly return data tracked by CoinGlass, Bitcoin has recorded declines in September 8 times out of 13 complete years since 2013, with a win rate of only 38.5%. The average return rate is -2.97%, and the median is -2.44%. Both of these figures are crucial: a negative median means that even in 'normal' Septembers, losses occur, not just a few crashes dragging down the average.

Only June's performance comes close to this dismal situation, with an average decline of a relatively small 1.59%. The average returns for the remaining months on the calendar are all positive. In contrast, October is the most profitable month of the year, with an average return rate of 19.92% and a median of 14.71%, which is the origin of the 'Uptober' market that the crypto community praises every year at this time.