Willy Woo Says Bitcoin May Ditch the Halving Cycle and Switch to a 6-8 Year TradFi Cycle

On-chain analyst Willy Woo says the Bitcoin (BTC) 4-year cycle may be ending. In a post on X, he argued the market could adopt the 6-8 year debt cycle of traditional finance (TradFi).

The claim lands with Bitcoin near $78,011 after an August rebound. The coin had lost roughly half its value from the October 2025 peak of $126,198.

Why the Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle May Have Lost Its Engine

Historically, each halving cut the pace of new supply in half and reset Bitcoin's four-year cycle. That recurring supply shock was strong enough to move the price on a fixed schedule. Woo now believes the mechanism has become too small to matter.

Issuance has run near 0.8% of supply since April 2024, and the 2028 halving will cut it to roughly 0.4%. For comparison, gold miners added about 1.7% to above-ground stock in 2025, based on World Gold Council data. Bitcoin's supply engine is therefore already weaker than gold's.

Fidelity Digital Assets reached a similar conclusion in February. Its research found volatility declining even as Bitcoin set record highs, behavior it links to maturation. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which existed in no prior halving cycle, add to that structural break.

Inside TradFi's 6-8 Year Debt Cycle