$3.2M bitcoin butterfly option trade targets $95,000 by end of October

Someone just put $3.2 million on the table betting Bitcoin lands near $95,000 by October 30. Not a wild moonshot punt, not a leveraged long that could blow up on a Tuesday afternoon. A butterfly spread, one of the more surgically precise strategies in the options playbook, designed to pay off handsomely at one very specific price point.

The trade was executed on Deribit, the dominant venue for crypto options, and it reflects a level of sophistication that screams institutional money rather than a retail trader chasing momentum on their phone.

A butterfly spread involves three strike prices. The trader buys one call at a lower strike, sells two calls at a middle strike, and buys one more call at a higher strike. Think of it like a tent: the payoff peaks sharply at the center and tapers off in both directions.

In this case, the tent pole is planted at $95,000. If Bitcoin settles there on October 30, the position delivers its maximum return. If it lands significantly above or below that target, the losses are capped at the $3.2 million premium paid.

This trade didn't happen in a vacuum. The October 30 expiry has become a magnet for bullish positioning across the Bitcoin options market.

More than 22,000 contracts have changed hands for the 30OCT26 $95,000 call option alone, contributing to roughly $1.9 billion in notional trading volume over a recent 24-hour window.