AI may be keeping Bitcoin’s biggest macro headwind alive after the Fed stops hiking

Bitcoin faces a new macro headwind from the artificial-intelligence boom as massive infrastructure spending competes for long-term capital.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 meeting showed market participants citing heavy private debt issuance for AI infrastructure as one factor pushing Treasury yields and term premiums higher. Nominal yields rose about 35 basis points across maturities from two to 10 years between Fed meetings.

That complicates things for crypto investors focused primarily on when the Fed stops tightening. Policymakers raised the federal funds target by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% in September, and most officials judged another increase would probably be appropriate before year-end.

Even when that cycle ends, continued competition for long-term financing could keep borrowing costs elevated independently of the overnight policy rate.

AI borrowing creates pressure beyond the Fed

The financing demands are already large enough to attract policymakers’ attention.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates the five largest technology companies will spend more than $1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditure across 2025 and 2026. Industry projections cited by the BIS put global AI investment at roughly $500 billion today, potentially rising to between $3 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030.