Bitcoin Breaks Down, Analyst Turns Contrarian and Targets $205,000

The cryptocurrency market experienced violent turbulence on Thursday, with Bitcoin (BTC) price losing the key support level of $81,000. This breakdown was not an isolated event but rather the result of multiple macro headwinds and on-chain anomalies resonating together, directly causing market liquidity to instantly dry up. As panic sentiment spread, a large number of leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated, and the market structure underwent a fundamental reversal in an extremely short period of time. Within just one hour, the total amount of forced liquidations in the market reached as high as $489 million, with Arkham data confirming the severity of this liquidity crisis. Data published by prediction market Kalshi Crypto on the X platform shows that traders expect Bitcoin to fall to $78,000 this month.

Large On-Chain Transfers Intensify Selling Pressure Concerns

Abnormal changes in on-chain capital flows intensified panic sentiment. Data shows that wallet addresses associated with the U.S. government executed large-scale asset transfers within an extremely short period of time, involving 12,267 Bitcoins worth approximately $1.01 billion. These assets were transferred out of wallets frozen in connection with the Bitfinex hack incident, with the destination being new unmarked addresses, and the transfers were not accompanied by exchange deposits, indicating that this was address reallocation rather than direct selling. However, the previous day, approximately 3,200 Bitcoins (worth about $264 million) and $119 million in USDT had already been transferred into Coinbase (COIN) Prime, with the funds likewise originating from FTX/Alameda and Bitfinex frozen wallets. This kind of high-frequency, large-value capital movement has triggered market concerns about potential selling pressure.