Bitcoin Combined Market Index Mirrors 2018 And 2022 Bear Phases

Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a structural zone that more closely resembles early bear market conditions seen in 2018 and 2022 than a routine mid-cycle correction, according to a new CryptoQuant report analyzing the cryptocurrency's Combined Market Index, with the metric falling into the low 0.2 range after sitting near the 0.5 equilibrium level as recently as October.

What Happened: Key Index Signals Structural Shift

CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Combined Market Index, or BCMI, aggregates valuation metrics such as MVRV, profitability indicators like NUPL, spending behavior via SOPR, and broader sentiment measures into a single composite reading.

The index declined from approximately 0.5 in October — a zone generally interpreted as equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces — to the low 0.2 range without producing the type of expansion reset typically seen during healthier corrections.

That pattern diverges from past mid-cycle cooling periods. It increasingly mirrors transitions into risk-off environments.

Historical data shows previous cycle bottoms formed when BCMI reached approximately 0.10–0.15, as observed in 2019 and during the 2022–2023 bear phase.

Current readings remain above those capitulation levels, suggesting that while Bitcoin may already be operating within a bearish framework, full capitulation has not yet arrived.