Bitcoin cycle bottom may already be in at $58K, says analyst James Check

James Check, founder and lead analyst at Checkonchain, said Bitcoin may have already established its cycle bottom after undergoing two capitulation events, arguing that shifts in holder behavior indicate the market has absorbed much of its selling pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) reached a record of just over $126,000 in October 2025 and traded around $77,400 at the time of writing, nearly 39% below its peak. Some traders expect BTC to establish another low in October 2026 based on its historical four-year cycle. In July, analyst Benjamin Cowen said that cycle-duration data and the US midterm-election calendar pointed toward a fourth-quarter bottoming window.

In an interview on Cointelegraph’s Proof of Thesis show, Check described Bitcoin’s February decline toward $60,000 as a “price-pain capitulation,” when investors who bought near the top sold at substantial losses. He identified a second “time-pain capitulation” around $58,000 in June and July, following months of sideways price action that caused holders to question whether Bitcoin would recover.

“What’s the difference between $58,000 and $59,000 or $60,000? Nothing,” Check told Cointelegraph. “It’s the six months that separated them. That’s the actual difference.” His assessment challenges expectations of an October low, suggesting the capitulation signals associated with a bear-market bottom appeared months earlier.