Bitcoin Drop to $60K Signals Potential Cycle Midpoint, Says Kaiko Research

Price action suggests the market has exited the post-halving euphoria phase and entered a typical bear period.

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touched $59,930 on Friday, reaching its lowest price since October 2024, CoinMarketCap

shows. The 32% decline from recent highs may mark the midpoint of an ongoing bear market, according to analysis from Kaiko Research.

Price action suggests the market has exited the post-halving euphoria phase and entered a typical bear period. Historical patterns indicate that this stage lasts approximately 12 months before accumulation resumes, Kaiko stated in a Monday note.

On-chain indicators are flashing bear market signals across multiple metrics. Aggregate spot trading volume on the 10 largest centralized exchanges declined 30%, falling from roughly $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November.

Combined futures open interest for

and

dropped from $29 billion to $25 billion over the past week. The 14% reduction reflects deleveraging as traders unwind positions amid heightened volatility, Kaiko's data indicates.

alignment with the four-year halving cycle has strengthened since the year began. However, determining the bear market's depth remains complicated because many factors that drove the rally to $126,000 persist, said Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research.