Bitcoin Has Never Failed a Setup Like This, Analyst Says: 'I'd Rather Just Say I'm Wrong'

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) now matches the pattern of every past bear market bottom, according to Benjamin Cowen, one of this cycle’s most prominent bears.

Why the Burden of Proof Moved to the Bears

Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said in a Real Vision interview Sunday that past bear markets ended with the same three steps:

1. Price sets a low and rallies
2. It climbs above the 20-week moving average
3. It breaks the 50-week moving average and keeps going

Bitcoin has now completed all three, and Cowen can’t recall a Bitcoin rally with this setup ever failing. 

Silver’s 2011 breakout did reverse the next day, but Bitcoin has held its gains so far. That shifts the burden of proof, in his view, onto the bears to explain why price would fall back.

Why He Is Not Fighting the Move

Cowen had bet that Bitcoin would stay below its May high this year, and the rally past that level proved him wrong. 

He says he would rather admit the miss than argue the breakout is fake. “I’d rather just kind of sit back and say, ‘All right, like I’m wrong,'” Cowen told Real Vision.

As Benzinga reported, Cowen first conceded after Bitcoin cleared $85,000. His mistake, he now argues, was assuming Fed rate hikes would push Bitcoin lower, since a hike can also signal a healthy economy.