Bitcoin Holds Above Realized Price as $95,000–$97,000 Test Nears

Bitcoin has reclaimed several important cost bases without a broad rise in leverage, leaving the $95,000–$97,000 area as the next major test for the recovery.

Bitcoin (BTC) has not recorded a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market, even after the share of supply held at a profit fell to levels last seen near the November 2022 low. The June low also remained above realized price.

If BTC continues to hold above its true market mean near $77,000, the June bottom would be the shallowest of the three bear-market lows recorded since 2017. BTC is currently above that level and its short-term holder cost basis.

The largest long-term holder supply band sits between $84,000 and $85,000, just below the current price area. A move back below $84,000 would put the $77,000 true market mean back in focus.

The main resistance above the market is the mean market-value-to-realized-value price near $96,700. The level represents the point at which average holder profits return to their long-term norm. Buyers who entered near the upper end of the range one to two years ago would also approach breakeven there.

Options positioning points to the same region. Dealer exposure on Deribit shifted sharply in one day, with positive gamma concentrated near the $95,000 strike and negative gamma between the current price and $92,000.