Bitcoin just crossed the line that ended 4 out of 5 bear markets, but one deadly historical trap could still trigger a crash to $62,000

Bitcoin registered an intraday high above $82,000 on Sept. 3, pushing above the 50-week moving average that Galaxy Research says marked the definitive end of four of Bitcoin's five comparable completed bear markets.

Galaxy's signal requires a weekly close above that line, and the Sept. 3 push through it happened well before the week's close.

A historical signal with one real exception

Galaxy's framework treats the 200-week moving average as Bitcoin's historical bear market floor and the 50-week moving average as its ceiling, with the 50-week line currently sitting around $81,800.

In four of the five completed bear markets where Bitcoin fell below that ceiling, the first successful weekly reclaim marked the bottom.

The exception came in 2021 and 2022, when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the level twice before falling to a fresh low.

Galaxy's drawdown accounting puts the current bear market's start near a $124,800 peak in October 2025 and its low near $58,500 at the end of June, a decline of roughly 53%.

More than a chart pattern

Bitwise's Sept. 1 research argues that Bitcoin's reclaimed price levels, combined with its Long-Term Holder Supply and Risk-On Transition models, point to a new bull market cycle already underway, provided those reclaimed levels hold.