Bitcoin Price Drops 4% in a Week, and the Chart Just Got Interesting

$Bitcoin is trading at $77,289 on September 11, down 4.40% over the last seven days and 1.10% in the last 24 hours. Market cap sits at $1.55 trillion with $30.02 billion in 24 hour volume. Zoom out and the picture gets less comfortable: $BTC is down 11.66% year to date, which means everyone who bought on January 1 is still underwater.

But the weekly candle is only half the story. The chart shows a market that has been grinding sideways for three weeks after a violent rally, not one that is falling apart. Here is the full technical breakdown.

Why Did the Bitcoin Price Drop 4% This Week?

The drop has almost nothing to do with crypto and almost everything to do with the Federal Reserve.

Traders spent the week pricing in a rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool has been showing roughly a 60% probability that the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at the September 16 meeting, a complete reversal from the hold expectations that dominated in late August. Strong August jobs data, record high core PCE and rising oil prices tied to the conflict in Iran all pushed yields higher, and higher yields are poison for an asset that pays no interest.

On top of that, August CPI is released today at 08:30 Eastern. Nobody wants to be caught with size on the wrong side of an inflation print that could decide the Fed meeting five days later, so the market de-risked. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell from 74 a week ago to 56, which is still Greed, but noticeably cooler.