Bitcoin price recovery narrows odds on higher 2026 targets, prediction market data shows

Bitcoin was trading at $77,121 on Thursday, having clawed back much of its summer losses in a sharp August rally.

The cryptocurrency gained roughly 24% during August alone, rising from around $62,600 at the start of the month to a peak of $80,797 on August 25.

That rebound has reshaped betting on Polymarket, the prediction market platform, where traders wager on which price milestones Bitcoin will hit before the end of 2026.

The market, which has attracted $62.1 million in trading volume since launching in November 2025, currently prices a rise to $90,000 at 44%.

A move to $100,000 is priced at 22%, while $110,000 sits at just 13%. On the downside, traders assign an 87% probability to Bitcoin falling below $55,000 again before the year is out, reflecting the scars of a volatile summer.

Bitcoin fell as low as the $60,000s in June, when MicroStrategy disclosed its first sale of the cryptocurrency in nearly four years and exchange-traded funds suffered heavy outflows.

The subsequent recovery has been driven partly by renewed institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs, which posted their best month of 2026 in August.

Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve, with a policy meeting scheduled for September 15 and 16 that traders expect could bring further volatility.