Bitcoin’s Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Says

Galaxy Research believes bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that the asset has entered an accumulation phase, according to a research alert from the firm.  “We believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” the report said.

Bitcoin traded near $80,000 at the time of the note, about 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30 low. The price would need to rise 53% to retake the previous record. The S&P 500, by comparison, sits within 1% of a record set on Oct. 6.

The report lays out four arguments: technical, positioning, fundamental and sentiment.

Bitcoin technicals

Galaxy uses two weekly moving averages to track bitcoin’s bear markets. The 200-week average has acted as a floor in each one, and the 50-week average has acted as a ceiling, according to the firm.

Bitcoin lost the 50-week average in November 2025 and stayed below it for 44 weeks. The June low tested the 200-week average and held, with the worst weekly close coming 4.7% beneath it. Price closed back above the 50-week average in September, and the week ended Oct. 18 was the fifth consecutive weekly close above that level.

Galaxy counted 13 such reclaims since 2011 and said the outcome depended on how long price had spent below the line. The four reclaims that ended spells of 20 weeks or more were higher a year later, by between 55% and 1,497%, and none closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level in the following 12 months. Of the nine that ended shorter spells, seven fell more than 25% within a year.