Bitcoin’s price has cleared a key hurdle that has historically preceded major bull runs

These multiples are approximate, given that early BTC price data is inconsistent. So they’re meant to illustrate the scale of subsequent rallies, do not necessarily imply that the moving-average crossover alone caused them.

History, however, is not a guarantee

Past performance does not guarantee future results, and the 50-week average has had its share of misses.

Two of the 13 instances failed. Both occurred during the volatile period spanning late 2021 and early 2022, when bitcoin briefly moved above the average before rolling over and eventually falling toward $16,000. Galaxy identifies those failed reclaims as the Dec. 26, 2021, and March 27, 2022, crossovers.

As of this writing, bitcoin is trading near $81,450, with the 50-week average at $78,115, according to data source CoinDesk.

If history is a guide, the latest reclaim suggests the bear-market low may have been established near $60,000 in recent months. It also raises the possibility that bitcoin could continue advancing toward new highs.

That outcome, however, will depend on whether bitcoin can hold above the moving average in the weeks ahead.