Bitcoin’s Record-Low Volatility Signals Potential 30% Move Ahead: Fundstrat

Fundstrat said rising long-term real yields could eventually help break Bitcoin out of its unusually quiet trading range, while Tom Lee noted easing oil prices as a backdrop for risk assets.

• Fundstrat noted Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility is at historic lows, a setup that has historically preceded 30% moves over the next two months.
• Head of Online Assets Strategy said the median 60-day move in prior low-volatility periods was just over 30%, although the signal does not give a clear direction
• Bitcoin jumped more than 2% on Monday, and Fundstrat said much of the rally was driven by traders unwinding bearish positions, not the start of a sustained uptrend.

Bitcoin (BTC) may have been quiet over the past few weeks, but that calm could be setting up the stage for a much bigger move. According to Fundstrat, the cryptocurrency’s 30-day volatility sits near historic lows, which is a setup that has historically been followed by a 30% rise over the next two months.

Bitcoin’s price moves over the past 30 days have been among the smallest on record, Fundstrat’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy Sean Farrell reportedly said in a Monday note to CNBC, adding that much bigger moves have historically followed such calm stretches.