Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Oil and AI Fears Squeeze Markets

In brief

• Bitcoin trades at $82,164, just above the a key support line, after touching $83,040 today and giving back part of the gain.
• Oil near $108, 3.7% inflation, and a 10-year yield above 5% keep rate-hike fears alive, while spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $910 million in two weeks.
• Technical indicators on the charts suggest caution for traders in the near term.

Bitcoin continues to defy seasonal ‘Uptober” expectations, as macroeconomic factors weigh heavily on the digital asset.

Bitcoin is hovering around $82,000 on Monday, up about 1% on the day, after tagging $83,000 early and handing some of it back.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, trades near $108 a barrel after weekend attacks on Persian Gulf tankers and Russian crude facilities. Pricey oil raises the cost of fuel and freight, which feeds inflation. The consumer price index (CPI), what households pay, rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, while the producer price index (PPI), what businesses pay, jumped 6.3%, the biggest annual rise since 2022.

That likely pushes the Federal Reserve toward raising interest rates, which makes borrowing costlier. Markets see roughly a 15% chance of a quarter-point hike next week. You can see it in Treasury yields, the return investors earn lending to the U.S. government: when hike bets rise, bond prices fall and yields climb. The 10-year sits at 5.08% and the 2-year at 4.72%, CNBC data shows.