Bitcoin Trails Nasdaq This Year: Why One Analyst Calls It ‘Helpful’

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades down around 7% on the year while the Nasdaq climbs 14%, and macro investor Dave Weisberger says that gap is exactly what a healthy setup looks like.

• How is Bitcoin doing today?

Why the Underperformance Is a Good Sign

Weisberger told The Wolf of All Streets Macro Monday panel that Bitcoin lagging the Nasdaq right now separates genuine long-term holders from short-term speculators. 

People still holding through this stretch are betting on dollar depreciation playing out over time, not chasing quick gains. 

Once that cycle turns, he expects Bitcoin to outperform the metrics most of the crypto community tracks, leaving real room to run before the asset even approaches its $126,000 all-time high, a level still roughly 40% above current prices.

Where the Bull and Bear Cases Clash

Bloomberg macro strategist Mike McGlone and Weisberger sparred over how to value Bitcoin from here:

• McGlone’s case — Bitcoin divided by the Nasdaq total return sits at the same level it traded in 2017. Same performance over eight years while carrying two to three times the volatility makes it a weak risk-adjusted bet next to simply picking Nasdaq stocks. He also flagged that Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, divided by the State Street SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), has dropped below it for only the second time since 2022.
• Weisberger’s case — McGlone’s framework ignores adoption entirely. Every Bitcoin adoption metric keeps climbing, and by that model fair value sits between $105,000 and $155,000, well above current levels. Ignoring adoption while looking only at price charts, he argued, is like ignoring corporate earnings while looking only at stock charts.