Bitcoin vs Gold: Both Down in 2026. Who Wins 2027?

As of Tuesday, November 10, the Bitcoin vs gold race has an unusual score for 2026: both are losing. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 15.1% this year, and gold is down 5.9%.

That is rare. We compared the two assets’ returns up to November 10 in every year since 2015. Both were down at this point only twice before, in 2018 and 2022.

Gold is still ahead on the year. Gold futures trade at $4,086 an ounce, 23% below their record close of $5,318 on January 29. Bitcoin, at $74,259, is 40.5% below its record close of $124,753 from October 2025.

The calendar favors gold too. In each of the past 11 years, whichever asset led on November 10 also finished the year ahead.

But 2018 and 2022 ended the same way: Bitcoin hit its cycle low within six weeks and then beat gold by a wide margin the next year. So is 2026 setting up the same turn for 2027?

Bitcoin vs Gold: After Both Fell, Bitcoin Won the Next Year

The two earlier cases point the same way, though two cases are a small sample to build on.

• 2018: Bitcoin ended the year down 73.6% and gold down 2.1%. Bitcoin bottomed at $3,237 on December 15. In 2019, it gained 92.2%, while gold gained 18.9%.
• 2022: Bitcoin ended the year down 64.3% and gold down 0.1%. Bitcoin bottomed at $15,787 on November 21. In 2023, it gained 155.4%, against 13.4% for gold.