Bitcoin whale accumulation meets $760M in ETF outflows – Is BTC’s recovery at risk?

Bitcoin’s recovery remains uncertain as new ETF outflows add to increasing selling pressures that investors want to get back into a breakeven position. Recent buying activity for Bitcoin [BTC] is now being priced at below the cost basis of some recent buyers.

According to recent Glassnode data, buyers who acquired BTC six to twelve months ago will need to see prices reach approximately $88,000 before reaching their break-even point.

The buyers who purchased BTC over one to two years ago would need to see prices increase to approximately $99,500 before they could break even. Each group has been consistently selling into recent rallies, resulting in a lack of upward price momentum.

Glassnode reports that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows totaling approximately $760 million since the 7th of October. This indicates a reversal of the strong inflows reported last month.

Their current cost basis is at approximately $81,500. This provides nearby support as long as prices continue to hold in this range. Realized losses among long-term holders of Bitcoin have declined 85% since late August when losses peaked.

As such, this suggests that there has been less forced selling. For a sustainable recovery in BTC prices to occur, it will require renewed interest in buying U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and a breakout above the breakeven level of $88,000.