CLARITY Act Odds Collapse to Record Low as Senate Delays Shake Crypto Market Confidence

Prediction markets hold the lowest chance yet that the CLARITY Act will pass into United States law this year, and some seem to be losing hope that Congress will pass crypto regulation at all.

Even Kalshi, the betting market that allows betting on bill passage between now and the end of the current legislative session, gives only a 20% chance to the bill, despite optimism in the aftermath of its 2025 House passage.

The measure ultimately stalled in the Senate due to contention on a variety of subject matters such as yield limits on stablecoins, anti-money laundering, and ethics rules for public officials.

These disagreements have delayed negotiations and steadily weakened expectations that the legislation can gain sufficient momentum before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess.

Things took another turn for the worse when Senate Majority Leader John Thune failed to file cloture, a procedural move that would enable Senate action on a motion to end debate and permit a vote on the Senate floor, leading some to believe that there was simply not enough political will to achieve the desired 60 votes in support of the bill.

With only a handful of legislative days before the Senate is due to recess, many market participants believe the chances of a near-term passage have waned.