Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 70% as Traders Back September Increase — What It Means for Bitcoin, XRP Extreme Predictions

Key Takeaways

• CME FedWatch data placed the probability of a September interest-rate hike at approximately 70%, up from 37% one week earlier.

• A hike could pressure Bitcoin, XRP and the wider crypto market by lifting Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar.

• Higher borrowing costs would make Jake Claver's prediction that XRP will exceed $750 before 2027 even more difficult to achieve.

Expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike have surged, threatening to disrupt Bitcoin's recovery and create another obstacle for XRP's most bullish price predictions.

Financial news account Walter Bloomberg highlighted market pricing that placed the likelihood of an increase at 70%, up from 37% one week earlier.

A separate Kalshi market also favors an increase, although traders on the prediction platform remain much more divided over what the Federal Reserve will do on Sept. 16.

Kalshi Traders Narrowly Favor September Rate Hike

CME FedWatch data placed the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at approximately 70.2% on Wednesday, which would lift the federal funds target range from 3.5%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%.

That represented a sharp change from the 37% probability priced into the market one week earlier.