Glassnode identifies first Bitcoin bear market without price drop below realized price

Every Bitcoin bear market since at least 2017 has shared one brutal ritual: price eventually crashes below the realized price, the on-chain metric that represents the average cost basis of every coin on the network. This time, it didn't happen.

Glassnode's latest on-chain report, dated September 23, 2026, confirms that Bitcoin never posted a daily close below its realized price during the current bear market. The June 2026 low, which marked the cycle's deepest drawdown, still held above that critical threshold. During the 2018-2019 bear market and again in 2022-2023, Bitcoin spent extended stretches trading below this line, meaning the average holder was sitting on unrealized losses.

Think of the realized price as Bitcoin's collective break-even point. It's calculated by valuing each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, then averaging the whole supply. When the market price drops below it, the typical Bitcoin holder is underwater.

Glassnode's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss metric, known as NUPL, reinforces the point. NUPL stayed positive throughout the entire cycle. That's never happened in a Bitcoin bear market before. It means that while individual holders certainly took losses, the network as a whole never tipped into aggregate loss territory.