When and How Low
CryptoPotato reported yesterday the combined conclusion from Martinez, Rekt Fencer, Peter Brandt, and other analysts claiming that the long-anticipated and debated BTC bottom will take place in early October. The idea is simple, but it’s surprisingly accurate – history.
Although historical performances do not guarantee a repeat, the fact that the primary cryptocurrency has bottomed out at approximately 364 after the bull market top on more than one occasion has the community waiting for October to see if it plays out again. As such, analysts speculate that the period between October 4 and 16 represents a potential macro bottom.
Since that sounds historically accurate and promising, given the fact that there are perhaps less than two months left, let’s join the fun. Let’s accept that bitcoin indeed bottoms at the start of Q4. The question that comes next is: at what price?
Martinez advised investors to prepare and initiate a long-term dollar-cost-averaging strategy and accumulate more BTC within a wide range between $62,000 and $48,000. He described the latter as the “final capitulation candle,” and concluded that after that it would be “time to get BULLISH.”
Fellow analyst Merlijn The Trader also weighed in on bitcoin’s structure, indicating that the RSI divergence that marked the previous market tops has built the same shape, but inverted, at the bottom now. In contrast to Martinez, he noted that the bottom might actually be closer, and he won’t be waiting for a dip below $50,000, even though a monthly close beneath $58,000 would invalidate the pattern.
OI Suggests Big Move Ahead
The evident dullness of the market hasn’t deterred leveraged investors from opening big futures positions. Data shared by Ted Pillows shows that the BTC open interest has skyrocketed to a three-year high after a sharp uptick in the past week or so.
This means that every larger volatility spike will be exacerbated by the fact that there’s so much leverage in the market now. Recall the events of the October 2025 massacre when such investors lost over $19 billion as prices unraveled. And the BTC OI then was slightly lower than it is now. As such, Pillows concluded that so much leverage typically ends with lots of wrecked positions.
