Iran War-End Signal Lifts Bitcoin Past $78K: Fed Pause Bets Add Second Tailwind

Bitcoin climbed back above $78,000 Thursday after two simultaneous catalysts gave the market something it has not had in six months of conflict: a credible signal that the US-Iran war might actually end, and a Federal Reserve signal that the rate-hike risk suppressing crypto alongside it may be easing as well.

A Wall Street Journal report published Thursday revealed that President Donald Trump has privately told senior aides he favors declaring the Iran war over — a course driven by surging oil prices, warnings that US interceptor missile stockpiles are running low, and aides' concerns that continued escalation could cost Republicans November's midterm elections. Within hours of the report circulating, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller separately signaled he would lean toward holding rates steady at the September meeting if August inflation data confirms the recent cooling trend — repricing September rate-hike odds from above 63% to around 50% on the FedWatch Tool rate probabilities. Bitcoin had been trading near its weekly lows below $77,000 after Trump confirmed fresh strikes near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. By Thursday, with intraday moves reaching $77,830, some trackers placed Bitcoin above $81,000 as the peace-signal optimism deepened — though analysts cautioned the rally remained fragile and contingent on two variables neither resolving cleanly.