The Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq Signal Has Flipped Bullish

Tech stocks are selling off, and Bitcoin is holding. Today’s Chart of the Day looks at Bitcoin priced in tech stocks, the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio, which reclaimed its 200-day moving average on September 18 after 235 straight sessions below it and hasn’t closed under it since. Sean Hagan walks through why Bitcoin was higher one year after reclaims like this five of six times with a median gain of roughly 84%, why this cycle’s 62% reset was the shallowest on record, and what the 2021 fake-out looked like by comparison. He also gives his invalidation level and his $100K line in the sand.

Chapters:
0:00 Bitcoin Priced in Tech Stocks: Four Cycle Resets From 87% to 62%
0:37 The Ratio Reclaims Its 200-Day After 235 Sessions Below
1:05 Is Bitcoin Just a Leveraged Tech Bet? What the Critics Are Missing
1:49 Beta Falls to 0.75 and the Leveraged Drawdown Already Happened
2:32 How Much Confidence in a 5-of-6 Hit Rate? 15 Backtest Combinations
3:03 Above the 100, 150 and 200-Day Averages With Puell Multiple Confirming
3:52 The 2021 Fake-Out: Why Mid-Cycle Dips Aren’t Resets
4:56 The Harder Macro Backdrop: Brent at $113 and the 10-Year Near 5%
5:39 Invalidation at $76–77K and the $100K Line in the Sand
6:39 Drawdowns Along the Way and Why the Reset Is Complete