The midterm elections are one month away – Bitcoin’s history says, watch out!

It looks like the market still has not fully priced in the upcoming midterm elections.

As of now, the market seems to be focused on the FOMC, where shifting rate expectations have caused the market to be quite volatile. The latest jobs data has added to this volatility, with rate-cut expectations dropping to 50% from 70% before the report.

The result? Bitcoin Options traders are increasingly positioning for a move above $90k, suggesting that the market is beginning to price in a bull rally.

On-chain data suggests that this positioning may not be too far-fetched. According to CryptoQuant, profit taking has just hit a 2026 high, while traders’ unrealized profits are climbing to 33%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Spot-Futures divergence continues to widen, pointing to rising speculative activity.

However, Santiment’s latest data sheds some light on why the setup could help Bitcoin. 

As can be seen in the chart above, Bitcoin’s large shareholder category is once again in accumulation mode. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC coins increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC over the past ten days, bringing the total amount to 13.64 million, or 67.93%.

In other words, the big players continue to buy.

Taken together, rising profit-taking and renewed whale accumulation suggests a textbook STH to LTH transition. In other words, BTC’s sideways consolidation around $85k may be less about weakness and more about supply shifting into stronger hands.