Why Bitcoin Hit $86,000 Despite Fed Rate Hikes - VanEck's Sigel, Former CFTC Chair Weigh In

Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) surge from around $58,000 over the summer to a September peak of $86,000 defied what appeared to be an increasingly difficult macro backdrop, including a Fed rate hike and rising Treasury yields.

VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and former CFTC Chair Chris Giancarlo offered two explanations for the rally:

• Exhausted sellers and improving liquidity conditions on one hand, and
• Bitcoin’s growing appeal as protection against government debt and currency debasement on the other.

Why Did BTC Rally Despite Higher Rates?

Sigel attributed the bulk of Bitcoin’s nearly $30,000 move to seller exhaustion rather than any single headline.

VanEck tracks several BTC capitulation indicators, and Sigel said every one of them triggered over the summer.

"There were just no more sellers left," he added, pointing to the Treasury’s subsequent bond-buyback announcement as a catalyst that helped accelerate the recovery.

Sigel said Bitcoin has historically shown virtually no persistent correlation with bond yields. Instead, it’s more meaningful macro relationships have been a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and a positive relationship with money supply.