A different kind of crypto winter? Rethinking bitcoin’s current cycle

By Dovile Silenskyte, Director, Digital Assets Research, WisdomTree

Bitcoin has lost roughly half its value since its October 2025 all-time high, falling from just over US $126,000 to approximately US $64,000^[1]. The broader crypto market has shrunk from US $4.4 trillion to US $2.2 trillion, and major digital assets have posted three straight quarters of losses^[2]. By price alone, this looks like a crypto bear market.

Below the surface, the comparison with previous crypto winters is less convincing. Regulation has become clearer, institutional participation has deepened and the infrastructure investors use to access digital assets has kept developing even as valuations fell.

The question is no longer how much further bitcoin could fall, but whether a roughly 50% correction has already stripped out the excess of the previous rally, and whether historical bear-market templates still apply to a market whose regulation and ownership are changing.

50% correction has already done much of the hard work

Bitcoin corrections are rarely subtle. The asset has repeatedly suffered peak-to-trough drawdowns far larger than traditional markets tolerate, which makes calling an exact bottom extremely difficult and cautions against assuming this one marks it.