Analysts Think Bitcoin is Less Than $5,000 Away From a Bull Market

Bitcoin whales sold into the two-week rally while US institutions stayed away, leaving the price about $4,900 short on Sunday of the level CryptoQuant treats as proof of a new bull market.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $76,808, down 0.2% in 24 hours. CryptoQuant puts that line at $81,700, the average closing price of the past year.

Bitcoin Whales Sent Coins to Exchanges as Retail Bought

A CryptoQuant Quicktake put the Exchange Whale Ratio at 0.93, a level the firm flags as an alert. The gauge tracks how much of the coin arriving at exchanges comes from the largest wallets, and exchanges are where coins are sold.

That reading covers one hour, so it marks a moment rather than a trend.

Retail went the other way. The Fear and Greed Index registered 66, well inside greed, and a taker buy/sell ratio of 1.12 showed traders paying up for leveraged bets.

Institutions did not join them. A negative Coinbase Premium meant Bitcoin traded more cheaply on the main US exchange than offshore, a sign American funds were not behind the move.

"With Price Momentum already exhausted at level 20 and the FEI Score locked in a zone of absolute noise (99.53%), the stage is set for a Long Squeeze," said CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain.