Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Could Hit New High By Year-End – Calls It The 'Fastest Horse' In This Complex

Bitcoin (BTC) could be on track to break a year-end record, but Arthur Hayes says the bigger story is where the next wave of global liquidity comes from. He believes Japan’s efforts to strengthen the yen, along with potential U.S. monetary support, could push money into risk assets and make Bitcoin the “fastest horse” in the next rally. But the catch — that bullish outcome hinges on what Japan and the Fed actually do. Ethereum is his firm’s bigger position, Hayes said.

“I think we can maybe breach the all-time high by the end of the year,” Hayes said to The Rollup, published on Tuesday, while cautioning that U.S. politicians “still can’t give the game away too much before the midterm elections," with affordability topping voter concerns.

According to Hayes, the AI capex trade’s fastest gains are behind it, and bailing out overextended AI credit will require more printed money, benefiting hard assets.

“I think Bitcoin in this complex is the fastest horse”

Arthur Hayes, CEO of Flop Labs

He described it as one leg of a barbell alongside positions that perform when liquidity tightens.

Japan Trade Drives Liquidity

Hayes attributed the recent crypto bid to Japan rather than to U.S. rate expectations. He pointed to Tokyo’s pressure on the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) to cut foreign holdings and buy domestic assets, calls for an uncapped Foreign and International Monetary Authorities (FIMA) repo facility, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s public prodding of the Bank of Japan. GPIF’s management committee met for the first time since Japan’s holiday month in seven years, according to a Bloomberg report.